ABSTRACT
We present an intertemporal consumption model containing foreign and domestic equity and domestic bonds, derive the model's first-order conditions, and develop the uncovered equity parity condition (UEP) embedded in the model. We treat the first-order conditions as a set of necessary conditions and use two methods to acquire estimates of the expected real equity rates of return, expected real rates of change in the exchange rates, and their associated covariances. We examine the case of U.S. investors acquiring equity in the G-7 countries and provide results for both the entire sample period (January 1977 – December 2023) and two sub-periods, pre- and post-euro. Given the inherent nonlinearities in the model, we do not test explicit hypotheses about the values of the estimated expectations and covariances. Nonetheless, the numerical estimates are consistent with the model's first-order conditions, and thus the evidence does not contradict our model of UEP.
Keywords
Uncovered equity parity, Risk premium, Real stock return, Real exchange rate, Intertemporal consumption.